As a fourth generation Baptist of the Southern Tribe, I have kept up with my denomination’s stats over the years. Conversion growth has not been trending in a good direction for a long time.
Yesterday, numbers were released on the latest study. While baptisms have increased, overall decline may be found throughout the denomination. The latest data are reflective of 2022 findings.
Churches average 5 baptisms.
43% of churches experienced no baptisms.
Churches in the South (5) had a slightly higher average of baptisms than those in the Northeast (4), Midwest (4), and West (4).
Churches founded from 2000-2021 averaged 6 baptisms; Churches founded from 1950-1999 averaged 6 baptisms; Churches founded 1900-1949 averaged 5 baptisms. Such reporting pushes against a longstanding tradition that goes back to the early 1990s stating younger churches baptize more than older churches. While averages are different than raw total numbers, this study counters much of what we have reported for decades regarding church planting. Averages provide a different denominational perspective. This is the first study I have seen comparing younger and older churches (with baptism averages) and showing no real differences.
Now, the study did report on newer and older churches and the attendee to baptism ratios. Here is where we see a difference, but it is a very small difference. Churches founded from 2000-2021 baptized 8 people per 100 attendees. While those churches founded between 1950-1999 baptized 5 people per 100 attendees. And churches founded from 1900-1949 baptized 5 people per 100 attendees. The longstanding church planting theory is being called into question. I challenged it years ago (given our ubiquitous church planting paradigm), but did not have stats to support my hypotheses. Few people listened then. Maybe we will listen now to Lifeway Research?
Worship attendance is declining.
For every 100 worship attendees, Southern Baptists baptize 5 people. This is part of an overall trend showing decline. Do not confuse attendees with church members. If we examine membership, then the ratio is much worse.
There is much to consider here. While we are to rejoice over those who have come to faith (Luke 15:7), been baptized, and now fruit-bearing disciples in local churches, there is also much concern. Yes, we need to keep praying, giving, evangelizing, and going. But, as I have advocated for two decades, I continue to state: a systemic shift is necessary that involves operating from an apostolic imagination which will result in rethinking ecclesiology and missiology. And since I have addressed this topic extensively through numerous mediums over the years, I will conclude this post.